How to Hide the Fact That You Spent Your Entire Christmas Break Getting Baked Alone in Your Apartment

How to Hide the Fact That You Spent Your Entire Christmas Break Getting Baked Alone in Your Apartment,

You’ve earned your break. Enjoy it! But you probably don’t want your parents/colleagues to know that the Balsam Fir wasn’t the only tree you lit each night over the Christmas holidays.

1. Don’t Leave a Huge Mess

Eventually, you’ll probably have to cope with having another human stop by your place. It sucks, but it happens, and the likelihood increases as you approach Christmas day. So you’d best clean up after yourself on a sesh-by-sesh basis.

  • If you’re one of those people who can’t pack a bowl or vape without spilling, use a makeshift funnel to keep your weed in order. As non-drinker, I don’t have an actual funnel on hand, so I use my Mouthpeace from mooselabs.us (the classic version from us). Rolled-up printer paper works as well.
  • Couldn’t help but spill some weed anyhow? Cover the end of a vacuum with a sock to clean it up without wasting any.
  • Clean up bong water and resin spills immediately, or else the smell is going to stick around for a long time. Bong water will usually come out of carpet if you spray the stain with white vinegar, blot with a towel, sprinkle baking soda, and repeat. Resin will come out with rubbing alcohol or Goo-Gone.

2. Get an Air Purifier

Trying to cover up the smell with essential oils or other scents is next to useless. You’ll just get a fresh lavender smell one second and a mouthful of dank smell the next whenever you walk through your apartment. Doesn’t fool anyone for long.

The real trick: get a charcoal air purifier. Charcoal is one of the few air filtration methods that effectively captures and neutralizes smells. That’s why it’s use in your range hood filter. You do have the replace the charcoal periodically, though, because the pores actually fill up with microscopic airborne particles over time.

3. Watch a Current Release

“What did you do on your break?”

Well, you could lie and say you visited the family or went to Blue Mountain or something, but you haven’t got the socials to back it up. Who’d go to Christmas dinner without posting a single story?

You could say, “Nothing,” but that’s not super convincing if you don’t want people to assume you were just stoned in your house for two weeks.

Easy solution: watch some current releases on demand and say you went to the theatre. No one expects you to have photographic evidence of this, and it’s mundane enough that no one will question it.

4. Un-Dank Your Clothing

Blazing up your entire place for two weeks is going to give your clothes and linens a distinctive, telltale odour. It’s usually sufficient to spray them with Febreeze and dry them with dryer sheets, but if that’s not doing the trick, try some Ozium. It’s what professional cleaners use to get old smells out of car upholstery.

That’s all I’ve got today. Happy Holidays!

5 Tips To Look Extraordinary In A Shirt

5 Tips To Look Extraordinary In A Shirt,

The shirt is each man’s most loved style piece. It’s straightforward, like most men, and requires not very many choices when wearing one.

Here are 5 tips to look extraordinary in a shirt.

  1. Know the occasion

The principal standard for wearing a shirt is knowing where and when it’s proper to do as such. Numerous gatherings you go to require the great old suit and tie, or if nothing else, a sleeved shirt with a neckline. Shirts are an alternative if and just if the occasion is casual.

  1. Know your body type

You have to realize your own body type to measure your odds of looking great in a tee. The brutal truth is that it doesn’t compliment all body shapes and sizes.

  1. Choose the correct fit

A decent shirt fit requires two things: first, it must adjust to your body shape and second, it mustn’t cause distress or confine freedom to move.

  1. Pick the correct style

This prompts a decision between a v-neck and crew neck t-shirts. v-necks are better for men who are fit, as the angular cut accentuates the chest region. They include more stature and equalization out points of interest like a short neck or a limited face. The crewnecks are a better alternative for men who have a more slender edge. Since they don’t uncover your neck to such an extent, they attract less to your upper middle, which is great if you haven’t been to the gym in a little while.

  1. Pick a good texture

A shirt’s texture is dependably a key factor in deciding its quality. If you want to jump at the chance to look astounding in a shirt, its material must be magnificent. Two shirts might be indistinguishable in structure and shading, however, the one with better texture will outflank the other by a wide edge.

NFL Defenses Need to Start Doing This

A huge trend on offense right now in the NFL is to flex a running back or tight end out wide.  Some of the best offenses in the NFL are doing this.  Last year, the two teams that did it the most were New England and Atlanta.

NFL Defenses Need to Start Doing This, Xs and Os strategy NFL Defense

Is it by chance that the two best offences are doing this?  Probably not so what do they gain?  Well it is the most effective way to know if it is man or zone coverage.  This becomes even more valuable when you have a matchup problem at these positions.

The offense gains a huge advantage.  If a line back goes out to cover RB/TE then you know it is man.  If the corner stays out to cover the RB/TE then you know it is zone coverage.

NFL Defenses need to have an effective counter to this because tipping your coverages before the snap is gives the offense too big of an advantage.

In order to understand the reasoning behind what I am suggesting, we first have to understand how NFL zones work.  When NFL teams run their zone concepts, especially on third down when knowing the coverage is even more important, they are note simple cover 2, cover 3 etc.  They are vastly complex with so many rules that you need players to specialize in their particular roles to be able to run them effectively.  A solution would be, why not have the line backer follow the TE/RB out and then still play zone.  Well the line backer won’t have mastered the rules to play the outside corner in their zone concept effectively.  On the flip side, if you play man out of a zone look, then you will have a line backer matched up on a WR and that is a big advantage for the offense if they can identify the coverage.

Now getting back to my original point.  I believe that teams should show on film the opposite of what their coverage tip shows.  They just need to do it enough to make the offense believe that it is a possibility that you could be showing man but actually be in zone or vice versa.

Now I know that I am arguing against myself.  But few things to consider:

  1. You’re not going to do this all the time, just enough to make the offense think twice. It might put you at a disadvantage for a play or two if the offense can identify it but for all the others you should be at an advantage
  2. When you initially run it, the offense should be surprised giving you the upper hand. Should reduce the concerns about running it initially.
  3. I believe you can scheme up a coverage that can compete on a small sample size. Let’s walk through them:
    1. Zone – In this case you are going to have a line backer and a corner out of position. The plus of this is it’s on the same side of the field.  You’ll have to go more simplistic on that side of the field but there are a number of variations that you can run to roll coverage to that side of the field.  This will discourge throwing to that side of the field and on the opposite side you can run your more complex coverages.
    2. Man – In this case the mismatch is the line backer on a wide receiver. The plus is you’ll have the flexed out WR or TE covered by a corner which 9/10 is a dominating matchup for you.  You should be able to use your free defenders to help the linebacker.

If you do it a few times you can remove that huge advantage that an offense gets by using formation to know the coverage.  Worth while trade off in my opinion.

NFL Teams Need a Game Management Coach

NFL coaches are really bad at game management.  With how much money NFL teams have, it really doesn’t make any sense why they don’t hire someone to handle this.  And it’s not surprising that some coaches consistently struggle with this.  Take Sean McVay.  His responsibilities include, head coach, Offensive Coordinator and offensive play caller.  With his attention being pulled so many directions, it’s no wonder he has made some game management errors.

Even head coaches that have less responsibilities still struggle with this.  Let’s look at one of those coaches and how his game management blunder cost his team drastically.

NFL Teams Need a Game Management Coach, NFL Head Coach Game Management Dallas Cowboys

NFC Divisional round 2017 – Green Bay vs. Dallas

Coming down the stretch, Dallas had the ball down 3.  They had just gotten into FG range and with the clock running called a timeout.  There was no need to call a timeout at this juncture and the ramifications of this decision lead to there being enough time left on the clock for Green Bay to kick a field goal and win the game.

 

After the game Jason Garrett defended his decision by saying they were going for a touchdown and he felt taking a timeout would result in best chance for that.  Even assuming this line of thinking was correct, which isn’t necessarily the case, it is still am unnecessarily risky and irresponsible decision.  Should Dallas had not taken that timeout, you still have a very reasonable chance to score a touchdown and win the game, but at the worst have a field goal to send the game to overtime.  You could have removed the chance of Green Bay getting the ball back with enough time to win the game.

 

Sure, you would have liked to win the game on the current possession and avoid overtime, but even if the game goes to OT, you should have liked your chances.  Dallas’ offense was rolling and Green Bay’s offense had done nothing recently.

 

The head coach’s job is to put their team in the best position to win.  By taking a timeout and allowing Green Bay the ball with the game tied, Jason Garrett did not do that.

 

Week 2 2017 – Dallas vs. Denver

There were a number of situations where Jason Garrett’s decision were poor.  Perhaps the worst part is that they don’t fit with one another.  At one point of the game, Dallas had a 4th and 3.  They punted signaling that Jason Garrett wanted the game to be an onside kick game.  What this means is they would rather stay in the game and hope they can recover an onside kick, rather than risk going for it and conceding the loss if they do not make it.  This is the conservative approach.

Later on, they had another 4th down with the opportunity of kicking a field goal, keeping the game theoretically winnable.  In this situation, he decided to take the aggressive approach and go for the touchdown.  They did not convert and any hope of winning the game was lost

Ultimately, in this game the cowboys were outplayed and that’s why they lost.   However, Jason Garrett made the wrong call in the first situation and then showed no constancy.  In the first situation, converting a 4th and 3 is much more likely than winning an onside kick game.  You go for it.

In the 2nd situation, going aggressive after choosing to be so conservative makes no sense.

Ultimately it is not just Jason Garrett struggling.  Many head coaches do in this regard.  I just don’t understand why they just don’t admit it and hire someone to manage this.

 

The NFL has a Serious Quality of Play Issue on it’s Hands

The first two weeks have resulted in some unwatchable football.  Some of this is part of a larger issue (limited practice time, poor offensive line talent) but some of it is the NFL’s own fault.  The schedule for primetime games has been pretty poor.  Granted, some of it is due to teams underperforming expectations but The NFL certainly not doing themselves any favours.  There were a number of intriguing games that I would have been more interested in viewing.

 The NFL has a Serious Quality of Play Issue on it’s Hands, Quality of Play NFL Issues Football

Larger Issue – Limited Practice Time

 

Many of the offenses have look inept so far, this season.  Points are way down this season.  And don’t get me wrong, I more than happy to watch a defensively dominated game.  But I want it to be that the defense is dominating rather than the offense just being bad.  Which is the case so far this season.

Timing is such a big thing in today’s NFL.  The best offenses look like well oiled machines, but so many of offenses look out of tune.  One theory for why this is, is that they don’t have time to practice.  The first part of the season is really just a time for them to get the reps in that they need to sort all this out.

Defenses have such an advantage in the beginning part of the season now because they are less dependant on timing.  Defense is much more reactionary making it is so much easier for a defense to be top notch early on.

I understand why practice time is limited but this issues of poor offensive play is not going away.  Offenses will continue to struggle at the beginning of the season, resulting in some pretty bad games.

Larger Issue – Poor Offensive Line Play

 

Part of the reasoning for the inept offensive play really has to do with the offensive line play.  Lines across the league now are so bad that they are destroying offenses.  Offensive coordinators are left with the choice of running a reduced playbook consisting of quick timing throws, or running their full playbook with a very realistic chance of the play being blown up before it fully develops.

If you look at the worst offenses so far this season, the major common theme is that their lines are some of the worst in the league.  Cincinnati, NY Giants, Houston, Seattle, Indianapolis are some of the worst lines and they are all bottom of the league in points for this season.

Talent coming into the league for offensive lines is at an all time low.  Now this could be a blip on the radar and talent could return to the average but there are a number of theories that suggest that this is not an outlier.

Time will tell if this is the case or not but let’s say that this issue persists.  The demand for competent offensive linemen does equal the supply.  Offenses will have to adapt and change their style of play.  This will give defenses a huge advantage going forward if this problem is not corrected.

NFL’s Own Fault

 

Regardless of the state of play across the NFL, some of these scheduled primetime games are ridiculous.  The reality of the landscape of today’s NFL is a viewer can watch any game that is live.  This means that even with play being poor, during the 1pm and 4pm time slots, you can find a game worth watching.  During the prime time games, where there is one option, if the game is bad you’re stuck watching it.

The NFL needs to look at the games the schedule in primetime.   I write this heading into week 3 and if you included the Thursday night game from week 3, 3 out of the 4 primetime games are pretty much unwatchable in my opinion.  Sure, Cincinnati and Houston looked a lot better before the season started but is it all that surprising that it was a dud?  Cincy had a bad offensive line last year and they let their two top linemen walk.  Houston has an incredible defensive front.  I’m not say it was 100% obvious that it would have played out like this but it is not at all surprising.

The NFL needs to be picking games that have a good chance to be intriguing and putting those in their primetime slots because right now Sunday is the only day I want to watch football.

Workplace Drug Testing

The topic of workplace drug testing has proven controversial over the years. While people are entitled to do as they please in their spare time, what if the effects of those pursuits carry over into their time on the job? Or what if they are indulging in substance use while on the clock? When does a company’s concerns cross over into a violation of a worker’s personal privacy? There is a fine line between each party’s views that can be difficult to navigate.

Workplace Drug Testing,

Companies are understandably worried about the safety of both their employees and members of the public who come into contact with those workers. For example, a truck driver doing his job while drunk has the potential to crash his vehicle. This could injure or kill innocent people, leading to both potential legal issues and loss of company assets (the vehicle and its contents).

Most firms have a set list of policies regarding what is and what is not appropriate conduct in the workplace; these rules almost always include warnings about substance use and working while under the influence.

The vast majority of workers adhere faithfully to those rules, but some don’t, either by accident or very much on purpose. Because of this, some companies use a drug and alcohol test to monitor whether employees are following the guidelines. A few firms do this in-house, but many use a third-party company for the task. This helps to ensure that all of the appropriate rules are followed and there can be no accusations of bias in the results.

If you need workplace drug testing, here are some questions to ask the companies performing such tests:

  • What are your testing procedures?
  • How accurate are your tests?
  • How often should the tests occur?
  • How long do the tests take to perform?

2017 Fantasy Football Overview – Part 1

It’s a great time of year for Fantasy Football enthusiasts – DRAFT SEASON!  Drafts will be happening all this month (although you really should wait until the third week of the preseason is completed) so here are some thoughts to help with your draft.  Ultimately, you’re looking to lay the foundation and give yourself a chance to be successful over the course of the season.  So many things need to go just right over the course of a season that you’re not going to win your fantasy season on draft day.  You can certainly lose it however, be prepared.

2017 Fantasy Football Overview – Part 1, strategy sports Fantasy FootballQuarterback

 

This seems to be more and more cliché each year but wait on QB.  Eventually there will have to come a point where everyone will wait and taking a top rated QB will become the optimum play, but every draft I do the top QBs are off the board too early.  This is why.  The top 5 QBs last year averaged 21.66 points per game.   QBs 11-15 averaged 17.34 points per game.  That’s a difference of about 4 points per game.  If you look at the same for running backs it jumps to about 6 points per game.  Based on the assumption that you want to maximize your points per week, you would rather have a top RB and middle QB than top QB and middle RB.  There are a number of other issues but essentially it boils down to opportunity cost.  I would love to have the best QB on my team but in order for me to draft that QB I have to give up drafting say a running back.  I would rather have better skilled players and a middle of the pack QB than the best QB and a middle of the road skilled players

The other strategy that I like to implement is when I do take a QB, I take a second very shortly after.  This is less about bye week fill ins and more about insurance/point maximization.  Players do have bad seasons all the time.  Having two middle of the pack QBs is a great way to ensure that you will have at least one start-able player (especially as most teams in the leagues I play in draft 2 QBs making waiver wire adds more difficult).  The second is that I generally like to play the match-up.  You can easily find two middle of the pack QBs that will produce higher than the top QB (taking whichever QB has the better week as your total).  Now you still have to start the correct QB but generally speaking if you play the match-up you can create a QB by committee that produces close to a top QB level.

 

Running Back

 

I would argue that running back is the most important position to hit on, especially early on.  You need to have a quote unquote stud running back that you can send out there every week.  The first running back you take is going to have the best chance at that but it’s really 50/50 whether they will live up to that stud status.  That is one reason you need to prioritize it early and often.  Give yourself the most amount of chances to get a stud.  According to ADP, Todd Gurley was the first RB taken in most drafts last year.  He finished 20th in total points.  Useable but certainly not what owners had hoped for when they drafted him.  If they had put all their eggs into that basket and waited a long time to draft another they were screwed.

The other issue if injuries.  Running backs take such a beating and  because of this miss the most amount of games due to injury on average.  Counting on two running backs for an entire season isn’t realistic, so you’re going to want to come out of the draft with at least 3 that you would be comfortable starting – but the more the merrier.

Trust me.  Having that one running back that you can pencil into your lineup every week makes your life so much easier.  Do yourself a favour and give yourself a good chance at that by drafting running backs early and often.

Why Ontario Went About the Minimum Wage Increase the Wrong Way

Ultimately, I am a fan of increasing minimum wage.  Wage disparity is problematic and this sort of addresses it but the implementation causes certain problems.

Why Ontario Went About the Minimum Wage Increase the Wrong Way, Ontario minimum wage business

Punishes Businesses that Have a Large Portion of Their Staff as Minimum Wage Works

Companies that have a large portion of their staff as minimum wage works, or close to minimum wage, will see their largest expense massively increase.  The rate hike over the multi-year period will equate to a ~32% increase over this time period.  This is extremely problematic for these businesses.

Businesses that employ people that are primarily high wage workers will see no impact.  People aren’t going to be asking for 32% raises because the minimum wage has increased by that factor.

This is a double standard for businesses.  One of the purposes of this legislation was to help discourage the income disparity.  In their implementation, they are creating a disparity for business based on their industries business model.

Disparity Creates Mass Inflation for the Goods/Services that Minimum Wage Workers Purchase

This goes back to the previous point.  If I am a business that employees primarily minimum wage worker, and my largest expense increases by such a large factor, I have no choice to respond by increasing my prices or try to reduce the number of people I employ.  Alternatively, I would go out of business.

Now, the issue with this is their prices are probably going to have to rise by a similar factor as the wage increase.  Most of the expenses that a minimum wage worker has been paid to businesses that employ minimum wage workers (i.e. food).  This means that their expenses will rise making their 32% high wage they are receiving less impactful.  If expenses increase by the same factor as their wage increase, it’s net zero.

If a business owner decides to try to forgo raising prices and reduce the number of employees they employ, the employment among minimum wage workers will greatly increase.  This means that some that keep employment will see a great benefit, through hirer wages compared to their expenses (prices would not rise by the same factor as wages in this scenario).  However, the supply of minimum wage jobs would greatly decrease.  Since the price cannot change (minimum wage), the supply of minimum wage jobs will not equal the supply and the number of unemployed will increase. This leads back to disparity as things will be better for those that keep their job, but worse for those that lose it.

How it Should Have Been Implemented

Ontario needs to keep the minimum wage increase but spread the cost of the increase in all business, not those that just employ minimum wage workers.  People don’t like the word tax, but there needs to be a tax based on a company’s employee expense.  This tax would get redistributed among businesses based on their % of employment of minimum wage workers.

This will result in all businesses being impacted by the increase equally, which will protect the minimum wage worker – the whole point of this increase!

 

The Greatest Tennis Era

With Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic’s exits from Wimbledon, Roger Federer is now the odds on favourite to win this major.  At the age of 35, he is continuing his run of majors solidifying his claim of the greatest male tennis player ever.  Add in Rafael Nadal as the greatest clay court player of all time and you begin to understand why this is the greatest era ever.

The Greatest Tennis Era, tennis Roger Federer Rafael Nadal greatest earUnprecedented Dominance

Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal are number 1 and 2 on the list of most majors won.  And they are continuing adding to their tally.  Federer has already won one this year and is the favourite to win the Wimbledon.  Nadal dominated the French open this year and if healthy will probably be the odds on favourite every year for the foreseeable future.  If they retired today they would be hands down they most dominate male tennis players to date.  However, they are adding to their totals and making it even more unlikely that anyone will ever touch them in terms of overall majors.

Tough Competition

I truly believe that for someone to overtake the final major total that Federer and Nadal end up with, they will have to be a generational player playing against a field absent of legitimate competition.  Similar to how Serina has dominated over the past while.  Not trying to take anything away from her accomplishments but there is no other player that challenges her on a consistent basis.  Now when you look at the Federer Nadal rivalry, imagine if either of those players were not on the tour for the others careers.  Another way of looking at it is how many majors did they cannibalize from each other.  Roger Federer has only won the French open once, mainly due to Nadal’s dominance.  Imagine how many more he could have won if Nadal was absent from all of those tournaments.  Heck, Roger even sat out the most recent French because he knew he had no chance at beating Nadal.

Not only have the two players been this dominate while playing against each other, they have had periods where they have faced legitimate competition from other players as well.  There was a time that Novak was favoured at the beginning of most majors.  Same with Murray to a lesser extent.

This has been a great period for tennis in terms of level of competition.  It only highlights the impressive accomplishments of these two men.

Likeability

The other great thing that has added to this era of tennis and helps solidify it as the greatest, is the likability of these two men.  Roger Federer is such a gentleman and so humble that you cannot help but cheer for the guy.  Nadal compliments that perfectly as the fiery Spaniard and this creates a perfect dynamic.  If you are not drawn into liking both of them, you instantly love the demeaner of the one and cheer against the other.  This creates not only compelling tennis (there have been so many iconic monuments between the two) but great invested interest for a causal fan.

I’m afraid that the end is drawing nearer for the careers’ of these two men.  Enjoy the final moments of them while you can because I believe that this is the greatest era of tennis and we may never relive this.

Poker Theory – Straight Draw

Hitting a straight is great, you generally get paid!  But the question that I am going to look at is when should you chase for your straight and when should you fold.  Well knowing the math is a must for this situation.  Knowing the math informs all of your decisions!

Poker Theory   Straight Draw, Theory Poker Math

All about Positive Expected Value

Expected value is when the winnings multiplied by the probability of winning is greater than the investment you have to make to have a chance at winning.  In other words, if you have positive expected value, then over the long hall you will make money.  When looking at a straight draw specifically, to determine if you have positive expected value, you need to know three things:

  1. The amount of money you can win
  2. The chances of hitting your straight (assumes you win the pot)
  3. The amount of money you have to put into the pot to continue to be in the hand

Once you know these things, you can determine if you should call or fold on a mathematical level

Math on hitting your straight

This is going to be the toughest math of the 3 steps.  There are going to be 2 scenarios that we are going to look at.  A one card straight draw and a two-card straight draw.

The first thing that we have to look at is how many outs we have in each situation.  If we are looking at a one card, then there are 4 outs.  The 4 outs would be the 4 suits of the same number card you need to complete your straight.  In a two card, straight draw there would be 8.

The next thing you need to look at is the number of unknown cards before the turn and the river come.  On the turn, it is 47, 52 minus the 3 communal cards and the 2 cards in your hand.  On the river, it would be 46 as one more communal card is now exposed.

Now we can figure out the probability of a few things which will dictate how a few different situations play out.

Probability of hitting a 1 card

If the flop has just come out the probability of the next card is one of the 4 that you require is ~8.5% and ~16.5 it is one of the next 2.  If the turn has just come, the probability that it comes on the river is ~8.7%.  So knowing this you can determine the pot odds you require.  If you can guarantee that you will not see another bet on the turn then you can call 6.25:1 pot odds on the flop.  If not, you need closer to 12:1 for your expected value to be positive.  Same for the river as well.

 

Probability of hitting a 2 card

It’s essentially double that of the above scenarios except for the probability that it comes on the turn or the river.  In this case, it is ~31.5% which makes the pot odds just over 3:1.

 

Knowing the math is really valuable for determining whether or not you should call, raise or fold with a draw.  It is the fundamental behind any poker play.

Using Statistical Methods to Predict Web Traffic

I believe it is possible to use statistic models on web traffic data and use it to forecast the traffic that a website will have.  I will first outline the basic model.  Then I will comment on certain aspects that you may want to change depending on the specific website.  Lastly, I will make some general remarks about the model itself.

Using Statistical Methods to Predict Web Traffic, Website Web Traffic StatisticsThe Basic Model

Google Analytics is a wealth of data.  As with any large data set, it would seem reasonable that you can use it to predict the future.  The basic premise of this concept will involve running a regression analysis of a historical data set, with time being the x variable, a number of sessions being the y variable (could potentially modify to use %change as well) to determine a linear equation of the expected traffic.  This will allow the user to input a forthcoming timeframe to get a sense of what the traffic should be.  You can also use the confidence interval outputs to create a range of where the traffic should be within.

 

Changes to Implement

Anyone that uses Google Analytics can tell you that there is a large variance of daily traffic.  I would recommend using weekly data at the minimum.  This will make your results much more statistically significant.  I would recommend some data smoothing.  Certain times of the year just naturally result in less traffic.  For example, over Christmas, many sites will have a drop off in traffic because people are spending time with family and are not working.  If there is a reasonable explanation for why your traffic is down for a particular week then I would recommend removing.  This will lead to better predictive results.  The other thing to keep in mind is seasonality.  Generally, every business will go through busy and slow times during a year.  You should account for this seasonality in your model or at certain points, you will think you are doing better than you would otherwise think you should be and vice versa.  There are a number of ways to get around this.  If you know the seasonality then you can create a model using data just from the seasonal times.  You could also incorporate a moving average.  Creating seasonal models would be best in terms of accuracy but a moving average would be simpler.  If you are going with the moving average note that it will not be perfect in terms of accuracy (especially when the seasonality downturn starts and ends) but still more accurate than nothing at all.

 

Notes

  • Generally, you should try to have a minimum of 100 data points
  • You should update your models to include the most recent data as possible
    • You shouldn’t create one model and keep using it for 100 weeks out
  • The less time you have between from when you create your model to when you predict a web traffic, the more accurate it will be
    • e. if the model signifies t=0, then t=1 will be more accurate than t=10

 

Golden State Better Sweep

Golden State Better Sweep, NBA Finals Basketball

NBA Finals

 

 

 

 

 

These playoffs and even this basketball season as a whole have been awful.  The one saving factor that we as fans had was the promise of this epic final between Golden State and Cleveland.  So much for that

At the beginning of the season, everyone knew barring injury that the final was going to be Cleveland and Golden State.  Which made for a really uneventful season and playoffs.  There were debates about which was better – an epic final and great rivalry over the next period or a season where anything can happen.

I could have gotten behind an epic final but with Golden State up 3-0 that’s not the case.  The one saving grace of this season, and this is only a slightly redeeming quality, is that we might see history with Golden State going 16-0 in the playoffs.

If Cleveland does end up winning game 4 then this season will have been a complete waste.  No team has ever come back so don’t start with the ‘it’s not over until it’s over’ nonsense

 

Already the NBA must look at this season as an eye opener to the product that they are providing.  There needs to be some sense of competition.  As I said earlier, I can get behind a pointless season and most of the playoffs IF the finals are epic.  But that is a huge risk for the NBA to allow this to happen because you can end up getting what happened this year – a complete waste of a season from an entertainment standpoint.  And when it comes to professional sports, the entertainment is all that matters.

 

One of the things that make the NFL so great is that anyone can win.  Sure, you get teams like New England that perform well every year, but even in their most dominant season, they lost in the Super Bowl.  The old adage of any given Sunday really holds true and is something the NBA could learn from.  I truly believe ‘any given night’ would be a great saying for the NBA to shoot for.

 

Anyways, back to the original point.  Personally, I really hope that Golden State does sweep so that there is something to take away from this season.  Sure, I am kind of hoping for something to happen that really would encapsulate what I am disappointed about.  But this might be a way to perpetuate change, draw attention to the issue if you will.

So, GO WARRIORS GO!